Tag: NYAY

  • Socialism the right way

    Recently I wrote on why socialism fails? The article may sound a complete no-no to socialism. I believe any concept is inherently not flawed. The flaw is mostly in the execution – be it capitalism, socialism or any other “-ism. So, what can possibly be socialism the right way? I am sure many would know Venezuela going through hyperinflation and complete chaos – that is one gift that socialism may give you.

    In economics many of the rules are written in some assumption or concept like – “everything else being constant…” the concept will work like this or like that. For an example – demand curve or supply curve. These curves are belied by the prices in some cases such as – price of oil or price of diamond.

    Similar is the case of assumption in the underlying concept of socialism. The assumption is – no one will try to game the system. If I take the same example of Sarla or Kishore of the previous blog any Sarla or Kishore with average intelligence will stop working or will try to get a certificate that proves (s)he is the bottom 20% of Indian population to get the benefits of NYAY scheme announced by the Congress Party in its election manifesto.

    In India, Amitabh Bachchan got a certificate of being a farmer long back. So, it is not difficult for people to get a certificate to the race to the bottom. Though, off late Mr Bachchan has paid off loans of many farmers in UP. The way a farmer’s certificate was easy to obtain for Mr Bachchan it is easy to get a BPL certificate too. What the scheme Nyay is most likely trying to do is – make youth and many Indians lazy or to game the system. This is how Socialism fails.

    There is another example of similar scheme running in India – MGNREGA. I have heard of cases where there is immense corruption in this scheme. People are getting part of the allocated fund per person just for signing a document (rest goes to the chain of officials). Thus, the unskilled people for whom it was an employment guarantee, get money for free. If one wants to get the same work done by someone, the wages asked are higher. It results in increase in inflation.

    With schemes like MGNREGA or Nyay, does not the leaders of the political parties implying that they do not have any idea for – 1. how to create more jobs (run the economy) and 2. how to increase skill level of the citizens so that citizen can do something for themselves rather than depending on others. It looks like these politicians have not heard the idiom – “Teach a man to fish and you feed him for life”. By the way, MGNREGA was started by one of the most renowned economists of the world!

    If I recall 2009 farm loan waiver of Manmohan Government – again a Congress government – more socialistic in its letter and spirit that did not augur well to our economy. The impact of that according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch the farm loan waiver will cost 2% to the GDP of India by 2019. At times educated economists try to fix a problem at the wrong place. Possibly the Modi Government GDP numbers could have been 2% higher!

    No doubt the basic principles of the right to food, shelter, water, education, and healthcare is considered given in today’s capitalistic economies and countries – example Obama care in the USA or Ayushman Bharat Health Scheme in India. There is a universal education program running in India Education for all (Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan). When I started looking at quick implementations of government’s schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana I feel current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is more socialistic than the Socialists / Marxists in India. In fact, recently I went to a village (about 500 KM from Mumbai), and I first hand saw – took some photos too shown here – the scheme being used by the villagers effectively.

    However, good the intentions to keep everyone at an equal level, humans do not seem to have found a way for equality. Possibly in the ant world, socialism is practically depicted to a better extent. Why USSR failed and communism of China is not worth appreciating, why Venezuela failed? Because there is no incentive to work or there is no ownership (common ownership) involved. Further, the move from capitalism to socialism follows communism as a midway stop. Communism gives power to the few, who – like any other human being – would not want to relinquish their power? The result – communism does not seem to end ever.

    Socialism (to some extent any -ism) can only work if we create a different scale for all of us – human beings. A different scale for success, survival, and growth. Many times greed and wish to control – people, things and systems – makes way and thus the Marx intermediary (read communism) from capitalism to socialism remains never-ending. Why can not we have a good execution, social good, and profit together? We can have it, provided we look at some new scale to measure ourselves.

    If any form of socialism needs to survive it has to be a middle path – a mix of different approach to economics, policy making and system. A system where we reward work, we provide essentials at appropriate cost or subsidy or for free and let people benefit from their work. At the same time, all the world political, social, economic and cultural systems must include teaching spiritual practices, trust and fairness – example is concepts of Jainism – Ahinsa (non-violence), Asteya (non stealing), Aparigraha (non-attachment) and concepts of Buddhism – meditation, interdependent co-arising. These concepts are essentially from different philosophy of Hinduism.

  • Why socialism fails? NYAY

    Our maid – Sarala – works at about 4 homes. She works close to 6 hours a day. With this hard work she earns more than INR 15,000 per month. There are laborers who work at construction sites and as daily wage electrician or carpenter – Kishore – in our area. Assume laborer earns INR 250 per day that comes out to be more than INR 6,000 per month. I am giving these numbers for Mumbai’s unskilled workers. So, I did some back of the envelop calculations. Here are some questions that make us believe Why socialism fails?

    Now let’s review a probable scheme NYAY announced few days back. NYAY is promised by Congress party (erstwhile Congress (Indira)). In this scheme they intend to offer 6,000 per month to the bottom 20% poorest people of India.

    Many of the people identified in the beginning, will fall in that category. Why? Because there is no way you can define bottom 20% poorest people. The reason is none of the above are in tax bracket. There is no way you can define their being “poor”. You may argue that there is a Below Poverty Line (BPL) cards. Many of the Indians know that our systems are such that this card – like a Bangladeshi illegal immigrant can get an Aadhar – is easy to get. If you do not remember any such card being made, read here. At the same time, if without such verification a scheme is run – you would get to see a misuse like this. Both the points are seemingly contradictory, however this is how manipulation happens with Government schemes. Most of the money allocated goes to the corrupt party’s politician’s pockets.

    population-estimate-India-2017
    GDP-estimate-India-2017

    This corruption is just one part of the story. Let’s dig a bit on how it can impact country’s economy. Now, since Sarala and Kishore are immigrants from different parts of India either they can get the benefits in their respective villages or the worst migrate back to the village – because they can get 6,000 for free per month. A village may not be as expensive so survival can be easy there. If they get the benefits staying here the NYAY scheme becomes UNNYAY (injustice) in itself. If they migration and so possibly many others. The shortages of unskilled labor in cities certainly will result in expensive labor. This expensive labor will translate in expensive stuff – be it real estate (the industry is in a tight spot anyway) or a house maids.

    Assuming some numbers and bringing others numbers, I did some back of the envelop calculations, references are attached herewith. Click on the images to enlarge.

    NYAY-GDP-impact-calculation-Summary-base-2017
    USD-INR-Exchange-rate-2017

    The worst is yet to come – one of the Congress’s think tanks Sam Pitroda says we will have to increase tax on income to manage in this expensive scheme. The outlay of NYAY can be as much as 22% of GDP. The numbers are calculated based on population estimates of 2017 and GDP estimates of 2017. Please check screenshots. This scheme would most likely cross defense budget of India. Effectively, it will reduce savings of middle class due to tax burden and higher inflation.

    I will leave you with few questions on this scheme – why would Sarala or Kishore want to up skill him/herself and ADD to the economy if such free money is available to him/her? Would not there be a competition to show oneself poorer than the poorest to get this free money? Should not job creation and up skilling be the priority of government rather than splurging tax money? Just imagine if up skilling program gets such fund (3.8 trillion or 3.8 lakh crores INR) how much skilled labor we can create? How successful is MGNREGA? If it really was, we must have had pukka roads across country by now. If a report writes positively about the scheme – can it possibly be PAID for?

    And the last question to you – if you were Sarala or Kishore what would you prefer – free money or a dignified earning, up skilling and job opportunity? If your answer is former – read individually smart collectively dumb.

    Note: numbers of 2017 are taken as those were readily available on Google Search