Business to the Buddha

Tag: moral hazard

  • Leaking pipe, economics and politics







    Recently I went to meet one of our relatives. We were generally speaking and his plumber came, I asked what happened? He said – Pravin, we requested our plumber to fix the leaking pipe. Later we asked him to put blocker from where the leaking pipe was having water inlet. I said why did you solve the problem of leaking pipe twice? He said the fixing the pipe with m-seal and other plumbing means was cheaper. But second time you had to put a blocker, isn’t it? It costs and your plumber might have charged you twice too. I curiously went to check the place – being an insider to this family it was alright. I repeated – you tried to fix a wrong problem and you did it twice! and also by putting blocker you made the pipe irrelevant too…

    The same keeps on happening in our society be it bailout or loan waiver to farmers. Those who cannot get in such beautiful moral hazard go to UK or become part of crony capitalism.

    I was speaking with my wife today, she said “loan waiver is not a permanent solution”. Yes she is right. This endemic was started by government of our own very famous economist Mammohan Singh and his another gem of an economist finance minister Chidambaram in 2008. It was a waiver of 60,000 cr, largely to win upcoming election. Manmohan Singh government won that election too, just to end up embroiling themselves in scam after scams. The scams resulted in public anger and protest – India Against Corruption. There are long lists of corruption under the Manmohan Singh government however the point of discussion currently is farmer’s loan.

    The kind of waivers offered mostly result in moral hazard. Just imagine, if I am a farmer – this year monsoon is expected to be good – why would I care to pay my loan EMIs when everyone is getting sops? The other trouble is – even after 70+ years of independence of India we are more dependent on monsoon rather than our skills of farming! Connecting all the rivers was a dream project of Atal Bihari Vajpayee 10+ years back, yet it has to see light of the day. Furthermore, we ignore solving the problems we created ourselves such as depleting underground water level. Mostly, the reason is – we are individually smart but collectively dumb. We assume that I cannot control where the underground water goes – why should I?

    Imagine, the amount of 60,000 cr farm loan of 2008 – had it been utilized in making canals and rainwater harvesting, educating farmers for better methods of farming and technology interventions in agriculture and post harvest we might have been able to solve the problem to some extent if not completely. The other thing to note is – how can we ascertain the benefits are transferred to the right people? Those who have small land holding may be taking loans from local private lenders, also they might not even have their credit ratings for bank to offer them loans. Where exactly does such huge amount go?

    Now think again about where the government gets this huge amount from? Have you ever seen your bills? Did you see Krishi Kalyan Cess? Government generates parts of such sops from us when we pay taxes – indirect tax. This is a problem to worry for middle class only. They earn and pay income tax, they buy and pay Krishi Kalyan Cess and when farmer’s are on strike they pay exorbitant amount for buying vegetables too. Mostly this expensive vegetables are procured by middlemen at cheap prices – all cash business less or least tax with black money. A better option for middle class Indian is to either become a farmer and get loan waiver or become an industrialist take loan and leave India!

    When I completed my sentence – “you tried to fix a wrong problem and you did it twice!… …The leaking pipe was old and rusting, you should have changed it at first instance. why don’t you fix it permanently? My relative said “why should I? It is a rented property? I may go next year, someone else will come, so I am fixing it temporarily.” Same is with the governments – they solve a problem as temporary fix – farmer loan waiver for winning next election and not solving problem which causes farmers to take extreme step of committing suicide or protesting for loan waiver.

    According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch the farm loan waiver will cost 2% to the GDP of India by 2019. This wrong precedence was set by two of the most knowledgeable economists of India – Mammohan Singh and Chidambaram. Go figure what it means to be subject matter expert!

  • Inner revolution







    Recently heard that UK has declared recession, Spain and Italy has done so earlier, Greece has once voted against the austerity measures and Sarkozy is no more French president – which is a dent on austerity measures of Eurozone. This is the story of Euro! USA employment numbers are not that encouraging, employment should be about 250,000/month however last time I noted it was 150,000 or so. China showed reduced production and Indian GDP is down.

    The picture looks gloomy, however have you seen importance of stars during full moon?  No! The importance and glitter of stars is prominent during darkest of nights. I believe this tough economic time is hinting of such nights when we would realize the importance of small things which impact us in big way. Take an example corruption! Take an example Greed! Though it seems a lesson on moral science but what else we are saying when we talk about the “Moral Hazard” as the biggest reason of recession and financial turmoil! In Indian context we need to work on reducing corruption (byproduct of greed) which is the biggest moral hazard here. In Europe and US Greed is the problem.

    I asked myself – are we going to see a revolution in the world? This revolution I believe would be on a tangent – it would not only happen in the society, not only by the society but also it would happen on the self! We have seen societies changing, cultures evolving  however these changes die down slowly and moral hazard starts again.

    Guruji

    I was attending an Art of Living (with Guruji :)) session today and the idea of ‘inner revolution’ stuck to me at that time. This makes a perfect sense – if everyone becomes righteous, we would not need to change the society, it would change itself.

    We need to get ready for inner revolution and help change the world for better today and tomorrow! Remember this would start from each one of us.

  • Individually smart, collectively dumb!







    Book Games Indians Play cover
    Games Indians Play
    Have you read Games Indians Play! by Dr Raghunathan? Very interesting book with pertinent examples of issues we face, many a times overlook and are facing worldwide. In that book he says – “We are individually very smart but collectively dumb”. I think we are collectively dumb and therefore we are in the economy-related mess we have created.

    I did not know that I would be referring to my new year blog so early in this year. Newspapers of 3-Feb-2012 made me do so. The news was about the 2G scam which had been under scrutiny for a long time now. In my opinion the verdict clearly stated that power corrupts and it gives you confidence that you can get away with murders too (many such cases pending in India)!

    I thought hard – really very hard – to find a solution. I think I will go back to TRIZ (theory of Inventive Problem Solving) to decide conflicts and resolving them. Until I find a one size fit all ‘man made’ solution, I could think of only one possibility. This solution is self restraint, and owning responsibility to make sure we are morally correct.

    This word ‘Moral’ reminds me of my economics and business ethics class of MBA where we discussed moral hazards with Prof Mankad and Prof Arun Ramanathan. I was reading this article on Moral hazards at Wharton. The article talks about authorities and new stringent rules. This regulatory authority will tomorrow need another (other set of rules) and so on and so forth. How long will we create such authorities? Moral hazards would end very easily when each one takes responsibility and become accountable for his/her action. This accountability has to come on each level and for all the actions. The problem lies with a reality that – ‘We are individually very smart but collectively dumb’. This ‘being individually smart’ begets moral hazard. The solution for this problem is one’s own self. Take responsibility own it and be accountable. Perhaps initially we (as individual) will fail but collectively we will start succeeding.

    I am hopeful that once we start from ourselves (individually), each one of us would be able to avoid situations where we would talk about Newspapers of 3-Feb-12 (2G Scam), other scams and the bad shape of world economy. Hoping that we would save our energy to concentrate on something constructive.